Semigration is changing, but it is far from over — what agents need to know

The South African property market has entered a more mature phase of the semigration cycle. While the frenetic buying activity that followed the pandemic has moderated, the movement of families and professionals between provinces continues to reshape local property markets, particularly in the Western Cape and selected coastal regions of KwaZulu-Natal.

The rush has settled, but the drivers remain

According to Meridian Realty principal Antonie Goosen, the market is no longer driven by urgency but by careful long-term planning.

"The extraordinary rush that characterised the early years of semigration has settled, but the underlying drivers remain firmly in place," says Goosen. "People are making lifestyle decisions rather than emotional ones, and many are still choosing locations that offer better governance, improved municipal services, good schools, safer communities and greater access to outdoor lifestyles."

The Western Cape remains the primary destination for buyers relocating from Gauteng, although demand has become more evenly spread across established centres such as Cape Town, Somerset West, Paarl and Stellenbosch, as well as smaller towns where buyers believe they can achieve a better quality of life. KwaZulu-Natal's North Coast is also benefiting from renewed interest, particularly among buyers seeking coastal estates with modern infrastructure and comparatively attractive property prices.

Remote work and affordability are reshaping decisions

Goosen says remote and hybrid working continue to support these trends. "The ability to work from almost anywhere has fundamentally changed residential property decisions. Many professionals no longer need to live close to their employer's head office, allowing them to prioritise lifestyle without sacrificing career opportunities."

He believes affordability has become a far bigger consideration than it was several years ago. "Buyers today are extremely value conscious. Rising living costs, higher municipal charges and economic uncertainty mean they spend considerably more time comparing areas and calculating long-term ownership costs before making a decision."

This more measured approach has extended transaction timelines, but it has also resulted in better-informed buyers who enter the market with realistic expectations.

Goosen says sellers should also understand that today's semigration buyers are less likely to compete aggressively for properties. "They have more options available than they did a few years ago, and they are prepared to walk away if they believe a property is overpriced. Accurate pricing has become more important than ever."

A permanent feature, not a temporary trend

While semigration no longer dominates property headlines in the way it once did, Goosen believes it has become a permanent feature of South Africa's residential market rather than a temporary trend. "The motivations may evolve over time, but South Africans will continue relocating in search of better opportunities, improved lifestyles and stronger long-term value. We expect semigration to remain an important driver of demand for many years to come, although at a more sustainable pace."

It has not stopped, but it has slowed and become more selective

Morné Prinsloo of RE/MAX Town and Country says this is a question he is asked regularly, usually by a client who read something online and wants to know if they should be worried about buyers disappearing from Gauteng.

"The honest answer is more nuanced than the headlines suggest, and understanding the current dynamics matters for anyone buying or selling right now," he says.

Prinsloo says the Western Cape remains South Africa's most popular semigration destination, and Pam Golding Property Group CEO Dr Andrew Golding has confirmed that 2025 saw a continued, though slightly slowed, flow of people to the province. StatsSA's 2025 Mid-Year Population Estimates show the Western Cape's population share sitting at around 12 percent nationally. The province continues to attract more people than it loses, driven by governance, lifestyle, and quality of life.

But the pace has genuinely eased. Rising Cape Town property prices, increasing congestion, and long school waiting lists in the city and its surrounds are creating practical barriers that did not exist to the same degree five years ago. Golding has noted that the Western Cape's dominance is being challenged by what analysts are calling reverse semigration.

Reverse semigration is a real and measurable trend

Data from multiple sources confirms that Gauteng is experiencing the strongest overall population growth in the country, with StatsSA showing 25.4 percent of South Africa's population now residing in Gauteng as of 2025. Absa Home Loans has confirmed net outflows of property owners from Gauteng in every quarter over the past five years, but the most recent quarters show that outward migration has slowed compared to 2024, even though the net figure remains negative.

The driver behind this shift is straightforward: economic opportunity. Gauteng contributes over a third of South Africa's GDP, and the decline of fully remote work arrangements, combined with formalised return-to-office mandates from major employers, is drawing skilled professionals back to Johannesburg and Pretoria. Analysts have noted a gradual uptick in demand and activity across the Johannesburg metro region, particularly since recent interest rate cuts, with the greatest movement in the R1 million to R3 million price segment.

What this means for local markets

"In Roodepoort and Krugersdorp specifically, I have seen a genuine increase in enquiries from buyers who previously considered or attempted a coastal move and have reassessed," says Prinsloo. "The reasons cited most often are the realistic cost of living in Cape Town relative to Gauteng, proximity to established family and professional networks, and in some cases the recognition that remote work arrangements they had counted on are no longer guaranteed by their employers."

"The Western Cape remains the top destination for those who do relocate, with property data showing that most seller-buyers in 2025 stayed within their existing province, and those who did move interprovincially were most likely to choose the Western Cape. But the counter-flow into Gauteng is real, and it is a trend worth watching closely if you are considering the timing of a sale or purchase in our market."

The honest take

Prinsloo says semigration to the coast has not reversed course entirely, and he does not expect the Western Cape to lose its appeal as a lifestyle destination. "But the narrative of a one-way exodus from Gauteng no longer reflects the full picture. Buyers are increasingly weighing the full financial and lifestyle impact of a coastal move rather than following it as an automatic aspiration, and Gauteng's economic gravity continues to pull skilled professionals and their families back."

For sellers in areas like Roodepoort and Krugersdorp, this is good news. It means the buyer pool includes not just local upgraders and first-time buyers, but a genuine and growing segment of buyers who are choosing Gauteng deliberately, having weighed the alternative.

If you are thinking about selling or buying in Durbanville, the message is simple: understand the real flow of buyers in your price band, price accurately, and do not assume last year's narrative still applies.

Article originally published by Property24.com. Full credit for the source reporting and interviews (Antonie Goosen, Meridian Realty; Morné Prinsloo, RE/MAX Town and Country; Dr Andrew Golding, Pam Golding Property Group) belongs to Property24.